Can the Akron Zips Basketball Team Make a Run in the NCAA Tournament This Year?

As I sit here watching the Akron Zips' latest game footage, I can't help but wonder—can this team actually make a serious run in the NCAA Tournament this year? Having followed college basketball for over fifteen years, I've seen countless mid-major programs rise to the occasion, and something about this Akron squad feels different. Let me walk you through why I believe they might just be this year's Cinderella story.

The University of Akron's basketball program has been building toward this moment for several seasons now. Under Head Coach John Groce, the Zips have consistently been a force in the Mid-American Conference, but national recognition has often eluded them. Last season, they finished with a 24-11 record and secured the MAC tournament championship, earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament where they fell to UCLA in the first round. This year, however, the team returns nearly 80% of their scoring production and has added what I consider to be their most talented freshman class in a decade.

When analyzing their tournament potential, I keep coming back to their offensive efficiency numbers. The Zips currently rank 45th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom metrics, a significant jump from last year's 68th position. They're shooting 37.2% from three-point range as a team, which places them in the top 50 nationally. What really stands out to me is their ball movement—they average 16.8 assists per game, which demonstrates unselfish play that typically translates well in tournament settings where defenses intensify.

The defensive side does concern me somewhat. While they've improved their defensive rebounding percentage from 71.3% last season to 74.1% this year, they still struggle against teams with dominant interior presence. I watched their game against Ohio State where they gave up 42 points in the paint, and that kind of vulnerability could be exploited by the power conference teams they'd likely face in the tournament. However, their zone defense has shown remarkable improvement, forcing turnovers on nearly 22% of possessions during their current eight-game winning streak.

What really makes me believe in this team's potential is their leadership and chemistry. I had the opportunity to attend their practice session last month, and the camaraderie was palpable. This brings to mind something that struck me recently when I came across a quote from basketball manager Mamuyac of Titan Management Group: "Alam naman natin kung gaano ka-talented si kuya Stan." While this references a different context, the sentiment resonates with what I observed—the players genuinely respect their leaders and understand each other's talents, much like the dynamic described in that statement. This intangible quality often separates tournament teams that make deep runs from those that exit early.

Their backcourt might be among the most underrated in the country. Point guard Xavier Castaneda has developed into what I consider a legitimate NBA prospect, averaging 18.3 points and 4.2 assists while shooting 41% from beyond the arc. His decision-making in crunch time has improved dramatically—I've counted at least four games this season where his late-game heroics directly resulted in victories. The emergence of sophomore guard Garvin Clarke as a reliable secondary ball-handler has taken pressure off Castaneda and created more offensive versatility.

The schedule they've played provides another reason for optimism. Their non-conference slate included games against Mississippi State, UCLA, and Marshall—all tournament-caliber teams. While they went 1-2 in those contests, the experience gained was invaluable. I particularly liked how they competed against UCLA, losing by just six points in a game where they led for significant portions. That kind of performance against elite competition builds confidence that they belong on the national stage.

Looking at potential matchups, I think the Zips would fare well against teams that rely heavily on perimeter shooting rather than dominant post play. Their ability to defend the three-point line (holding opponents to 31.8%) could neutralize some of the high-powered offenses they might encounter. If they can secure somewhere between a 10-12 seed, which I believe is realistic given their current NET ranking of 38, they could catch a higher seed overlooking them—a classic tournament scenario.

Of course, I have to acknowledge the challenges. The MAC hasn't produced a Sweet 16 team since Ohio University in 2012, and the conference's tournament record overall is rather bleak at 15-52 since 2000. The depth of this year's tournament field also presents obstacles, with what many analysts are calling the most balanced field in recent memory. Additionally, their relative lack of size—their tallest rotation player stands at 6'9"—could be problematic against teams with multiple seven-footers.

Still, something about this Akron team feels special. Having watched countless mid-major teams throughout my years covering college basketball, I've developed a sense for which teams have that magical combination of talent, chemistry, and timing. The 2023 Zips check all those boxes for me. Their path wouldn't be easy, but I genuinely believe they have the pieces to win at least one, possibly two games if the bracket breaks favorably. They remind me of the 2021 Oral Roberts team that surprised everyone by reaching the Sweet 16—a comparison I don't make lightly.

As tournament selection Sunday approaches, I'll be watching the Zips closely. Their remaining schedule presents opportunities to build momentum, particularly their February 24th showdown with rival Kent State, which I've already circled on my calendar. If they can maintain their current level of play and enter the tournament healthy, I'm confident they'll not only make noise but potentially create one of those memorable March moments we all cherish. The beauty of college basketball lies in these underdog stories, and this Akron team has all the ingredients to write their own compelling chapter.